BioTradingArena

Direct Categorical

Direct CategoricalClaude & GPT-4

Single-prompt categorical prediction (very_negative to very_positive). The simplest approach: give the model a press release and ask it to classify the stock impact into one of 7 categories.

Overview

Strategy Type

Direct Categorical

Number of Steps

1 step

Models Used

Claude & GPT-4

Output Format

Categorical (very_negative to very_positive)

Prompt Details

prediction

System Prompt

You are an expert biotech analyst specializing in evaluating clinical trial catalysts and FDA announcements for their impact on stock prices. Given a press release about a biotech catalyst event, predict the likely stock price impact. Impact categories: - "very_positive": Stock likely to rise >15% (major positive catalyst like FDA approval, breakthrough Phase 3 results) - "positive": Stock likely to rise 5-15% (good results, positive regulatory news) - "slightly_positive": Stock likely to rise 2-5% (mixed but net positive news) - "neutral": Stock likely to move <2% either direction (expected results, minor news) - "slightly_negative": Stock likely to fall 2-5% (mixed but net negative news) - "negative": Stock likely to fall 5-15% (missed endpoints, regulatory setbacks) - "very_negative": Stock likely to fall >15% (major failures, safety issues, CRLs) Be CONSERVATIVE in your assessments. Only predict very_positive or very_negative for truly exceptional or catastrophic news.

User Prompt Template

Analyze this biotech press release and predict the stock price impact. CATALYST INFO: - Ticker: {ticker} - Company: {company} - Drug: {drug} - Phase: {phase} - Indication: {indication} - Event Type: {cat_type} PRESS RELEASE: {pr_text} Respond in this exact JSON format: {{ "predicted_impact": "very_positive|positive|slightly_positive|neutral|slightly_negative|negative|very_negative", "score": <0-100 where 0=worst possible news, 100=best possible news>, "confidence": <0-100 how certain you are>, "reasoning": "2-3 sentence explanation of your prediction", "highlights": ["key point 1", "key point 2", "key point 3"] }}

Expected Output Format

This prompt expects a JSON response. See the user prompt template for the exact structure.

Template Variables Reference

These variables are dynamically replaced with actual values when the strategy is executed:

{cat_type}Catalyst event type (e.g., FDA approval, trial results)

{company}Company name

{drug}Drug or therapy name

{indication}Medical indication/disease being treated

{phase}Clinical trial phase (1, 2, 3, etc.)

{pr_text}Full press release text

{ticker}Company stock ticker symbol

{{
  "predicted_impact": "very_positive|positive|slightly_positive|neutral|slightly_negative|negative|very_negative",
  "score": <0-100 where 0=worst possible news, 100=best possible news>,
  "confidence": <0-100 how certain you are>,
  "reasoning": "2-3 sentence explanation of your prediction",
  "highlights": ["key point 1", "key point 2", "key point 3"]
}

Custom variable